Will Olympiacos Piraeus win on 2026-10-31?
5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 75¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
10
Yes 50%
$1.5K
-$102.18
79.4¢ → 74.5¢
-6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 79.6¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$100.32 | 50% 25153-24879 (50032) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Noavg 26.7¢ | $62.71 | $41.07 | -$21.63 | 50% 10883-10699 (21582) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 19¢ | $28.5 | $39.75 | +$11.25 | 59% 10226-7214 (17440) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 30¢ | $28.2 | $30.08 | +$2.35 | 58% 28754-21204 (49958) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 20.4¢ | $21.43 | $27.79 | +$6.36 | 49% 8037-8396 (16433) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 83¢ | $19.1 | $18.98 | -$0.12 | 53% 4726-4250 (8976) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Yesavg 68¢ | $12.24 | $12.6 | +$0.18 | 53% 15968-14143 (30111) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 30.8¢ | $5.69 | $2.72 | +$0.33 | 58% 41980-30479 (72459) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100 | Yesavg 61¢ | $3.05 | $2.58 | -$0.47 | 85% 5348-927 (6275) |
 RN1<$100 | Yesavg 56¢ | $1.27 | $1.17 | -$0.1 | 54% 56642-48828 (105470) |
Invested
$1,388.84
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$100.32
Record
50%
25153-24879 (50032)
Invested
$62.71
Value
$41.07
PnL
-$21.63
Record
50%
10883-10699 (21582)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$28.5
Value
$39.75
PnL
+$11.25
Record
59%
10226-7214 (17440)
Invested
$28.2
Value
$30.08
PnL
+$2.35
Record
58%
28754-21204 (49958)
Invested
$21.43
Value
$27.79
PnL
+$6.36
Record
49%
8037-8396 (16433)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$19.1
Value
$18.98
PnL
-$0.12
Record
53%
4726-4250 (8976)
Invested
$12.24
Value
$12.6
PnL
+$0.18
Record
53%
15968-14143 (30111)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$5.69
Value
$2.72
PnL
+$0.33
Record
58%
41980-30479 (72459)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100Invested
$3.05
Value
$2.58
PnL
-$0.47
Record
85%
5348-927 (6275)
RN1<$100Invested
$1.27
Value
$1.17
PnL
-$0.1
Record
54%
56642-48828 (105470)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.