Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (55%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Exact Score: Atromitos Athinon 1 - 1 AEK Athens?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 45¢ · $738 held · ended Oct 17
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$737.86
-$266.06
95.8¢ → 45¢
-53% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
14h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IW iWasEnoughCTR | Yesavg 99¢ | $998.99 | $449.55 | -$539.45 | — |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179 | Noavg 1¢ | $2.9 | $161.1 | +$158.17 | — |
BL BlackMamba08<$100 | Noavg 10¢ | $10.21 | $64.48 | +$54.27 | — |
AS asdkjhsad<$100 | Noavg 1¢ | $0.86 | $47.31 | +$46.45 | — |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $0.93 | $15.44 | +$14.51 | — |
Invested
$998.99
Value
$449.55
PnL
-$539.45
Record
—
Invested
$2.9
Value
$161.1
PnL
+$158.17
Record
—
Invested
$10.21
Value
$64.48
PnL
+$54.27
Record
—
Invested
$0.86
Value
$47.31
PnL
+$46.45
Record
—
Invested
$0.93
Value
$15.44
PnL
+$14.51
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.