Will Vólos NPS win on 2026-10-29?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 99¢ · $732 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$732.34
$43.31
84.5¢ → 99.2¢
+17% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 95.3¢ | $535.04 | $556.52 | +$21.48 | 54% 56041-48162 (104203) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 59¢ | $79.06 | $130.58 | +$51.52 | 58% 28255-20837 (49092) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 59.8¢ | $6.57 | $18.83 | +$12.26 | 51% 5926-5601 (11527) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 61.9¢ | $22.43 | $14.26 | -$8.18 | 52% 3699-3363 (7062) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $15.15 | $9.75 | -$5.39 | 62% 1102-662 (1764) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.1¢ | $30.78 | $2.4 | -$28.39 | 50% 24690-24365 (49055) |
RN1Invested
$535.04
Value
$556.52
PnL
+$21.48
Record
54%
56041-48162 (104203)
Invested
$79.06
Value
$130.58
PnL
+$51.52
Record
58%
28255-20837 (49092)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$6.57
Value
$18.83
PnL
+$12.26
Record
51%
5926-5601 (11527)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$22.43
Value
$14.26
PnL
-$8.18
Record
52%
3699-3363 (7062)
Invested
$15.15
Value
$9.75
PnL
-$5.39
Record
62%
1102-662 (1764)
Invested
$30.78
Value
$2.4
PnL
-$28.39
Record
50%
24690-24365 (49055)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.