Vólos NPS vs. APS Atrómitos Athinón: O/U 2.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 62¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 29%
$3.5K
-$274.36
58.8¢ → 62¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 59.3¢ | $2.2K | $1.9K | -$365.1 | 50% 24686-24362 (49048) |
SA Saber-greed | Underavg 57.5¢ | $742.34 | $639.5 | -$102.84 | 59% 2542-1763 (4305) |
 us391CTR | Overavg 42¢ | $357.96 | $430.4 | +$72.44 | 51% 1664-1610 (3274) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Overavg 42.3¢ | $215.31 | $257.05 | +$41.74 | 58% 28254-20837 (49091) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Overavg 37¢ | $175.26 | $239.21 | +$63.95 | 49% 18818-19217 (38035) |
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100 | Overavg 42.7¢ | $81.91 | $96.97 | +$15.06 | 58% 5792-4246 (10038) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 39.1¢ | $4.86 | $5.26 | +$0.4 | 52% 3688-3350 (7038) |
Invested
$2,215.15
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$365.1
Record
50%
24686-24362 (49048)
Invested
$742.34
Value
$639.5
PnL
-$102.84
Record
59%
2542-1763 (4305)
us391CTRInvested
$357.96
Value
$430.4
PnL
+$72.44
Record
51%
1664-1610 (3274)
Invested
$215.31
Value
$257.05
PnL
+$41.74
Record
58%
28254-20837 (49091)
Invested
$175.26
Value
$239.21
PnL
+$63.95
Record
49%
18818-19217 (38035)
Invested
$81.91
Value
$96.97
PnL
+$15.06
Record
58%
5792-4246 (10038)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$4.86
Value
$5.26
PnL
+$0.4
Record
52%
3688-3350 (7038)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.