Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
PAOK vs. AEK: O/U 3.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 29%
2 arb excluded
$6.5K
$734.73
69.2¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 37.1¢ | $1.7K | $3.0K | +$1.3K | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Underavg 59.4¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$85.97 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 59.4¢ | $935.3 | $841.91 | -$93.39 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 34.4¢ | $508.7 | $688.07 | +$179.36 | |
MY myxiCTR | Underavg 71.4¢ | $1.9K | $1.4K | -$517.95 | 68% 339-159 (498) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Underavg 62¢ | $511.59 | $431.84 | -$79.74 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Underavg 68.1¢ | $1.1K | $132.27 | -$943.75 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 68.1¢ | $1.1K | $92.58 | -$958.07 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 60.1¢ | $25.36 | $39.69 | +$14.33 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 45.6¢ | $10.27 | $15 | +$4.72 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $7.38 | $11.25 | +$3.87 | 50% 32798-32351 (65149) |
US User7429<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $5.61 | $5.04 | -$0.57 | 55% 8110-6552 (14662) |
 poshposh<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $4.92 | $5 | +$0.08 | 60% 9402-6388 (15790) |
RN1Invested
$1,675.86
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$1,444
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$85.97
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,904.27
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$517.95
Record
68%
339-159 (498)
Invested
$511.59
Value
$431.84
PnL
-$79.74
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
Invested
$1,076.01
Value
$132.27
PnL
-$943.75
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$10.27
Value
$15
PnL
+$4.72
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
Invested
$7.38
Value
$11.25
PnL
+$3.87
Record
50%
32798-32351 (65149)
Invested
$5.61
Value
$5.04
PnL
-$0.57
Record
55%
8110-6552 (14662)
poshposh<$100Invested
$4.92
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.08
Record
60%
9402-6388 (15790)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.