PAOK vs. AEK: O/U 2.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 28

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.1K

Combined PnL

$366.32

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 100¢

+79% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares6,739

Combined PnL+$441.57

Under3 traders

Total Value$156.54

Total Shares548

Combined PnL-$75.25

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 44.8¢	$3.2K	$2.8K	-$394.49	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.8¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	-$407.95
└ Over leg	Overavg 63.8¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$13.47
RA rabbitfoot1	Overavg 47.6¢	$3.4K	$2.2K	+$586.25	53% 1104-975 (2079)
RN1	Overavg 68.8¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$104.74	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
UP UpTheBlues	Overavg 57¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$48.15	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
MY myxiCTR	Underavg 44¢	$219.56	$144.71	-$74.85	68% 339-159 (498)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 68.2¢	$127.59	$132.77	+$5.18	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 61¢	$43.65	$46.15	+$2.5	49% 18625-19055 (37680)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$11.55	$11.41	-$0.15	50% 32798-32351 (65149)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 51¢	$2.04	$2.58	+$0.54	53% 3098-2756 (5854)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$0.68	$0.43	-$0.26	47% 4451-4924 (9375)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,160.44

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$394.49

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

Both legs:

Under$1,972.244.8¢-$407.95

Over$1,188.2463.8¢+$13.47

rabbitfoot1

Over

Invested

$3,368.69

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$586.25

Record

53%

1104-975 (2079)

RN1

Over

Invested

$1,678.36

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$104.74

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

UpTheBlues

Over

Invested

$1,274.78

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$48.15

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

myxiCTR

Under

Invested

$219.56

Value

$144.71

PnL

-$74.85

Record

68%

339-159 (498)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$127.59

Value

$132.77

PnL

+$5.18

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$43.65

Value

$46.15

PnL

+$2.5

Record

49%

18625-19055 (37680)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.55

Value

$11.41

PnL

-$0.15

Record

50%

32798-32351 (65149)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$2.04

Value

$2.58

PnL

+$0.54

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.68

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$0.26

Record

47%

4451-4924 (9375)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.