Spread: AEK (-1.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold PAOK (75%) · PAOK at 86¢ · $12K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
PAOK
4
PAOK 75%
$11.7K
$122.51
85.4¢ → 86¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralPAOK at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | PAOKavg 85.3¢ | $7.0K | $7.1K | +$100.59 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
 poshposh | PAOKavg 85¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$28.94 | 60% 9374-6357 (15731) |
LU LuckyLoo | PAOKavg 86.2¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$3.36 | 50% 12109-12317 (24426) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | AEKavg 14.8¢ | $69.44 | $65.78 | -$3.65 | 53% 3056-2718 (5774) |
Invested
$7,003.3
Value
$7.1K
PnL
+$100.59
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
poshposhInvested
$2,551.14
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$28.94
Record
60%
9374-6357 (15731)
Invested
$1,912.5
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$3.36
Record
50%
12109-12317 (24426)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$69.44
Value
$65.78
PnL
-$3.65
Record
53%
3056-2718 (5774)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.