Will PAOK win on 2026-10-28?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 63¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$2.1K
-$45.83
63.7¢ → 62.5¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 63.7¢ | $997.47 | $994.36 | -$3.1 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Yesavg 37¢ | $952.82 | $927.07 | -$25.75 | 49% 18605-19035 (37640) |
SA Saber-greed | Noavg 64¢ | $141.25 | $125.8 | -$15.45 | 59% 2526-1757 (4283) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 61.7¢ | $20.99 | $19.38 | -$1.61 | 53% 3056-2718 (5774) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $5.67 | $5.76 | +$0.09 | 63% 1075-624 (1699) |
Invested
$997.47
Value
$994.36
PnL
-$3.1
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Invested
$952.82
Value
$927.07
PnL
-$25.75
Record
49%
18605-19035 (37640)
Invested
$141.25
Value
$125.8
PnL
-$15.45
Record
59%
2526-1757 (4283)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$20.99
Value
$19.38
PnL
-$1.61
Record
53%
3056-2718 (5774)
Invested
$5.67
Value
$5.76
PnL
+$0.09
Record
63%
1075-624 (1699)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.