Will AEK win on 2026-10-28?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$4.5K
$125.8
70.8¢ → 99.5¢
+40% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 69.2¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$3.4 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 69.2¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$62.74 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 31.2¢ | $621.95 | $688.1 | +$66.14 | |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 71¢ | $978.09 | $1.3K | +$332.62 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 70.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$76.06 | 50% 32798-32351 (65149) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 28¢ | $300.94 | $237.07 | -$63.87 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
PA pauleta23CTR | Yesavg 32¢ | $162.36 | $106.55 | -$55.81 | 67% 23116-11520 (34636) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 74.5¢ | $33.72 | $29.63 | -$4.09 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $16.77 | $18.15 | +$1.95 | 76% 3927-1248 (5175) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 83.3¢ | $13.53 | $10.95 | -$2.58 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 67.3¢ | $10.1 | $9.83 | -$0.28 | 54% 6053-5127 (11180) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $6.2 | $0.11 | -$6.09 | 60% 9402-6388 (15790) |
Invested
$1,799.35
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$3.4
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
Both legs:
Invested
$978.09
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$332.62
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
Invested
$1,080.99
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$76.06
Record
50%
32798-32351 (65149)
RN1CTRInvested
$300.94
Value
$237.07
PnL
-$63.87
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$162.36
Value
$106.55
PnL
-$55.81
Record
67%
23116-11520 (34636)
Invested
$33.72
Value
$29.63
PnL
-$4.09
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
Invested
$16.77
Value
$18.15
PnL
+$1.95
Record
76%
3927-1248 (5175)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$13.53
Value
$10.95
PnL
-$2.58
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
Invested
$10.1
Value
$9.83
PnL
-$0.28
Record
54%
6053-5127 (11180)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$6.2
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$6.09
Record
60%
9402-6388 (15790)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.