Will MGS Panserraïkós win on 2026-10-27?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$1.5K
$9.54
66.3¢ → 100¢
+51% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391 | Noavg 50¢ | $597.23 | $734.59 | +$137.36 | 51% 1630-1570 (3200) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 95¢ | $434.51 | $372.23 | -$62.28 | 50% 24101-23732 (47833) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846 | Noavg 86¢ | $278.45 | $199.12 | -$79.33 | 59% 29921-20647 (50568) |
 HRTrading | Noavg 83.1¢ | $126.98 | $130.65 | +$3.68 | 54% 2558-2193 (4751) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $35.35 | $48.68 | +$13.21 | 54% 55318-47360 (102678) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $11.4 | $12.3 | +$0.9 | 49% 18391-18816 (37207) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $9.8 | $9.95 | +$0.15 | 54% 6000-5086 (11086) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $13.44 | $9.29 | -$4.15 | 52% 5814-5435 (11249) |
us391Invested
$597.23
Value
$734.59
PnL
+$137.36
Record
51%
1630-1570 (3200)
Invested
$434.51
Value
$372.23
PnL
-$62.28
Record
50%
24101-23732 (47833)
Invested
$278.45
Value
$199.12
PnL
-$79.33
Record
59%
29921-20647 (50568)
HRTradingInvested
$126.98
Value
$130.65
PnL
+$3.68
Record
54%
2558-2193 (4751)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$35.35
Value
$48.68
PnL
+$13.21
Record
54%
55318-47360 (102678)
Invested
$11.4
Value
$12.3
PnL
+$0.9
Record
49%
18391-18816 (37207)
Invested
$9.8
Value
$9.95
PnL
+$0.15
Record
54%
6000-5086 (11086)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$13.44
Value
$9.29
PnL
-$4.15
Record
52%
5814-5435 (11249)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.