Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (75%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
GS Markó vs. Olympiakós SFP: O/U 3.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 25¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Over
4
Over 75%
1 arb excluded
$10.6K
-$448.79
38¢ → 25¢
-34% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Overavg 38¢ | $6.6K | $7.1K | -$520.82 | 54% 55711-47797 (103508) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 38.8¢ | $3.2K | $2.3K | -$876.71 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 38.8¢ | $2.7K | $1.8K | -$891.49 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 71.8¢ | $490.3 | $505.07 | +$14.77 | |
 HRTradingCTR | Overavg 38¢ | $718.4 | $774.41 | +$37.13 | 53% 3047-2709 (5756) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Underavg 54.3¢ | $397.68 | $432.33 | +$34.65 | 49% 18595-19019 (37614) |
AR ARocky33CTR<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $3.06 | $3.3 | +$0.24 | 76% 3921-1243 (5164) |
RN1CTRInvested
$6,606.2
Value
$7.1K
PnL
-$520.82
Record
54%
55711-47797 (103508)
Invested
$3,186.21
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$876.71
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Both legs:
HRTradingCTRInvested
$718.4
Value
$774.41
PnL
+$37.13
Record
53%
3047-2709 (5756)
Invested
$397.68
Value
$432.33
PnL
+$34.65
Record
49%
18595-19019 (37614)
Invested
$3.06
Value
$3.3
PnL
+$0.24
Record
76%
3921-1243 (5164)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.