Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-10-28?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 93¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28

Yes93¢No7¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$17.08

Smart Money Entry

82¢ → 93¢

+13% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes93%

No7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,962

Combined PnL+$8.41

No2 traders

Total Value$47.33

Total Shares172

Combined PnL+$8.67

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Yesavg 82¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$0	54% 55711-47797 (103508)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 17.5¢	$1.1K	$602.59	-$483.29	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
└ No leg	Noavg 17.5¢	$848.29	$340	-$508.3
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 84.1¢	$237.58	$262.6	+$25.01
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$38.17	$43.73	+$7.07	52% 5872-5504 (11376)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 76¢	$23.78	$31.48	+$8.41	53% 3047-2709 (5756)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$2	$3.6	+$1.6	54% 6046-5125 (11171)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$2,409.16

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

55711-47797 (103508)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$1,085.88

Value

$602.59

PnL

-$483.29

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

Both legs:

No$848.2917.5¢-$508.3

Yes$237.5884.1¢+$25.01

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$38.17

Value

$43.73

PnL

+$7.07

Record

52%

5872-5504 (11376)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.78

Value

$31.48

PnL

+$8.41

Record

53%

3047-2709 (5756)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$1.6

Record

54%

6046-5125 (11171)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 93%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.