AGS Astéras Trípolis vs. AE Kifisiás: O/U 3.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 89¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
1 arb excluded
$2.6K
-$28.74
85.9¢ → 89¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 84.5¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$2 | 50% 24110-23737 (47847) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 88.3¢ | $719.45 | $688.88 | -$30.57 | 50% 32583-32122 (64705) |
LU LuckyLooARB<$100 | Overavg 16.8¢ | $346.88 | $411.03 | +$64.15 | 50% 11942-12092 (24034) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 16.8¢ | $180.82 | $209.7 | +$28.88 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 66.4¢ | $166.06 | $201.33 | +$35.27 | |
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100 | Underavg 95¢ | $47.5 | $42.25 | -$5.25 | 48% 4420-4876 (9296) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 12¢ | $15.36 | $19.84 | +$4.48 | 54% 55325-47376 (102701) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Overavg 20¢ | $11.98 | $12.58 | +$0.6 | 59% 44263-30624 (74887) |
Invested
$1,391.96
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$2
Record
50%
24110-23737 (47847)
Invested
$719.45
Value
$688.88
PnL
-$30.57
Record
50%
32583-32122 (64705)
Invested
$346.88
Value
$411.03
PnL
+$64.15
Record
50%
11942-12092 (24034)
Both legs:
Invested
$47.5
Value
$42.25
PnL
-$5.25
Record
48%
4420-4876 (9296)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$15.36
Value
$19.84
PnL
+$4.48
Record
54%
55325-47376 (102701)
Invested
$11.98
Value
$12.58
PnL
+$0.6
Record
59%
44263-30624 (74887)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.