AGS Astéras Trípolis vs. AE Kifisiás: O/U 1.5
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 100¢ · $652 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 33%
2 arb excluded
$652.03
-$59.67
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $445.63 | $346.42 | -$99.21 | 59% 44263-30624 (74887) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50¢ | $265.06 | $204.05 | -$61.01 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 78¢ | $180.57 | $142.37 | -$38.2 | |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 53.2¢ | $120.94 | $141.36 | +$20.42 | 50% 24110-23737 (47847) |
LU LuckyLooARB<$100 | Underavg 22¢ | $87.68 | $135.25 | +$47.57 | 50% 11942-12092 (24034) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 22¢ | $50.93 | $89.13 | +$38.2 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 49¢ | $36.75 | $46.13 | +$9.38 | |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $38.25 | $28.88 | -$9.38 | 49% 18399-18822 (37221) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 29.8¢ | $70.83 | $0.12 | -$70.71 | 50% 32583-32122 (64705) |
Invested
$445.63
Value
$346.42
PnL
-$99.21
Record
59%
44263-30624 (74887)
Both legs:
Invested
$120.94
Value
$141.36
PnL
+$20.42
Record
50%
24110-23737 (47847)
Invested
$87.68
Value
$135.25
PnL
+$47.57
Record
50%
11942-12092 (24034)
Both legs:
Invested
$38.25
Value
$28.88
PnL
-$9.38
Record
49%
18399-18822 (37221)
Invested
$70.83
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$70.71
Record
50%
32583-32122 (64705)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.