Will AE Kifisiás win on 2026-10-27?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 96¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 57%
2 arb excluded
$9.7K
$-1.5K
95.4¢ → 96¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR graziek99 | Yesavg 96¢ | $8.0K | $7.9K | -$41.56 | 88% 361-49 (410) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Yesavg 31.9¢ | $849.31 | $789.11 | -$60.2 | 59% 44263-30624 (74887) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 70.9¢ | $421.59 | $440.12 | +$18.52 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 31.9¢ | $427.71 | $348.99 | -$78.72 | |
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Yesavg 94.5¢ | $726.86 | $735.51 | +$8.65 | 50% 32583-32122 (64705) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 94.5¢ | $442.08 | $446.94 | +$4.86 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 4.4¢ | $284.78 | $288.57 | +$3.8 | |
 RN1CTR | Noavg 61.8¢ | $800.6 | $129.47 | -$671.13 | 54% 55325-47376 (102701) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 39.1¢ | $29.3 | $68.25 | +$38.95 | 54% 6000-5088 (11088) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Noavg 64.3¢ | $601.71 | $51.45 | -$550.26 | 50% 11942-12092 (24034) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 67¢ | $278.6 | $20.8 | -$257.8 | 50% 24110-23737 (47847) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 41.9¢ | $3.14 | $6.98 | +$3.84 | 54% 2570-2206 (4776) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Yesavg 77¢ | $6.16 | $5.08 | -$1.08 | 73% 1436-529 (1965) |
Invested
$7,980.08
Value
$7.9K
PnL
-$41.56
Record
88%
361-49 (410)
Invested
$849.31
Value
$789.11
PnL
-$60.2
Record
59%
44263-30624 (74887)
Both legs:
Invested
$726.86
Value
$735.51
PnL
+$8.65
Record
50%
32583-32122 (64705)
Both legs:
RN1CTRInvested
$800.6
Value
$129.47
PnL
-$671.13
Record
54%
55325-47376 (102701)
Invested
$29.3
Value
$68.25
PnL
+$38.95
Record
54%
6000-5088 (11088)
Invested
$601.71
Value
$51.45
PnL
-$550.26
Record
50%
11942-12092 (24034)
Invested
$278.6
Value
$20.8
PnL
-$257.8
Record
50%
24110-23737 (47847)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.14
Value
$6.98
PnL
+$3.84
Record
54%
2570-2206 (4776)
Invested
$6.16
Value
$5.08
PnL
-$1.08
Record
73%
1436-529 (1965)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.