Will AGS Astéras Trípolis win on 2026-10-27?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 56¢ · $69 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$69.38
$0.16
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BA Bayupati<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $39.33 | $38.64 | -$0.69 | 50% 182-179 (361) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 56.1¢ | $15.35 | $15.66 | +$0.31 | 54% 2548-2180 (4728) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $14.54 | $15.08 | +$0.54 | 60% 9071-5988 (15059) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.