AS Néstos Chrysoúpolis vs. PS Kalamáta: O/U 2.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 59¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
1 arb excluded
$3.4K
-$86.63
52.1¢ → 58.5¢
+12% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Underavg 48.4¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$57.16 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 48.4¢ | $826.46 | $776.23 | -$50.22 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 55¢ | $763 | $756.06 | -$6.94 | |
OM omnibus-076daa | Overavg 52.2¢ | $1.1K | $949.12 | -$115.52 | 49% 18595-19018 (37613) |
 us391CTR | Underavg 45¢ | $683.02 | $690.61 | +$7.59 | 51% 1646-1580 (3226) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 47¢ | $151.05 | $171.94 | +$20.89 | 54% 55710-47796 (103506) |
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $35 | $34.62 | -$0.38 | 58% 5759-4227 (9986) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Overavg 50.3¢ | $18.1 | $18.9 | +$0.8 | 59% 44604-31003 (75607) |
Invested
$1,589.45
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$57.16
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,064.64
Value
$949.12
PnL
-$115.52
Record
49%
18595-19018 (37613)
us391CTRInvested
$683.02
Value
$690.61
PnL
+$7.59
Record
51%
1646-1580 (3226)
RN1CTRInvested
$151.05
Value
$171.94
PnL
+$20.89
Record
54%
55710-47796 (103506)
Invested
$35
Value
$34.62
PnL
-$0.38
Record
58%
5759-4227 (9986)
Invested
$18.1
Value
$18.9
PnL
+$0.8
Record
59%
44604-31003 (75607)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.