Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

AS Néstos Chrysoúpolis vs. PS Kalamáta: PS Kalamáta O/U 2.5

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 0.1¢ · $284 held · ended Oct 28

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

Total Value

$284.49

Combined PnL

-$175.56

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$177.13

Total Shares754

Combined PnL-$215.56

Under1 trader

Total Value$107.36

Total Shares140

Combined PnL+$40

Over — 75%Under — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Overavg 52¢	$243.54	$110.06	-$133.48	59% 30088-20807 (50895)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 48¢	$67.37	$107.36	+$40	50% 12108-12317 (24425)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Overavg 52.5¢	$147.15	$65.89	-$81.26	49% 18595-19019 (37614)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$2	$1.17	-$0.83	59% 44606-31003 (75609)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Over

Invested

$243.54

Value

$110.06

PnL

-$133.48

Record

59%

30088-20807 (50895)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$67.37

Value

$107.36

PnL

+$40

Record

50%

12108-12317 (24425)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Over

Invested

$147.15

Value

$65.89

PnL

-$81.26

Record

49%

18595-19019 (37614)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$1.17

PnL

-$0.83

Record

59%

44606-31003 (75609)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.