Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold PS Kalamáta, while the market favors AS Néstos Chrysoúpolis (55%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: PS Kalamáta (-1.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold PS Kalamáta (60%) · PS Kalamáta at 45¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
PS Kalamáta
5
PS Kalamáta 60%
2 arb excluded
$10.1K
$31.15
54.8¢ → 45¢
-18% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralPS Kalamáta at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors AS Néstos Chrysoúpolis 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | PS Kalamátaavg 53.4¢ | $5.0K | $5.3K | +$260.35 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
| └ AS Néstos Chrysoúpolis leg | AS Néstos Chrysoúpolisavg 42.8¢ | $2.4K | $3.0K | +$573.39 | |
| └ PS Kalamáta leg | PS Kalamátaavg 53.4¢ | $2.6K | $2.3K | -$313.04 | |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | PS Kalamátaavg 58.3¢ | $2.8K | $2.7K | -$157.78 | 59% 44606-31003 (75609) |
| └ PS Kalamáta leg | PS Kalamátaavg 58.3¢ | $1.8K | $1.6K | -$240.46 | |
| └ AS Néstos Chrysoúpolis leg | AS Néstos Chrysoúpolisavg 45.8¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$82.67 | |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | PS Kalamátaavg 54.7¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$67.84 | 49% 18595-19019 (37614) |
 RN1CTR | PS Kalamátaavg 55.1¢ | $647.62 | $752.62 | +$105 | 54% 55711-47797 (103508) |
 HRTrading<$100 | AS Néstos Chrysoúpolisavg 48¢ | $52.2 | $51.66 | -$0.54 | 53% 3047-2709 (5756) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | AS Néstos Chrysoúpolisavg 47¢ | $53.25 | $49.95 | -$3.3 | 50% 32772-32329 (65101) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | PS Kalamátaavg 55¢ | $26.44 | $24.28 | -$2.16 | 60% 9362-6344 (15706) |
Invested
$5,016.7
Value
$5.3K
PnL
+$260.35
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,838.84
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$157.78
Record
59%
44606-31003 (75609)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,306.81
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$67.84
Record
49%
18595-19019 (37614)
RN1CTRInvested
$647.62
Value
$752.62
PnL
+$105
Record
54%
55711-47797 (103508)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$52.2
Value
$51.66
PnL
-$0.54
Record
53%
3047-2709 (5756)
Invested
$53.25
Value
$49.95
PnL
-$3.3
Record
50%
32772-32329 (65101)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$26.44
Value
$24.28
PnL
-$2.16
Record
60%
9362-6344 (15706)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.