PS Kalamáta leading at halftime?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 29%
1 arb excluded
$4.4K
$1.3K
44.4¢ → 100¢
+125% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 44.4¢ | $1.3K | $2.5K | +$1.2K | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Noavg 60.2¢ | $909.03 | $705.75 | -$203.29 | 59% 44606-31003 (75609) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 60.2¢ | $612.99 | $376.51 | -$236.48 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 56.6¢ | $296.05 | $329.24 | +$33.19 | |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Yesavg 56.8¢ | $632.34 | $669.96 | +$37.62 | 49% 18595-19019 (37614) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 47.7¢ | $180.56 | $238.31 | +$57.74 | 54% 55711-47797 (103508) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Yesavg 51.4¢ | $178.83 | $219.05 | +$40.22 | 50% 12108-12317 (24425) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 56.9¢ | $26.87 | $26.98 | +$0.11 | 53% 3047-2709 (5756) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100 | Yesavg 64.6¢ | $18.99 | $18.5 | -$0.48 | 55% 1688-1389 (3077) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $3.07 | $7.14 | +$4.07 | 50% 32772-32329 (65101) |
Invested
$1,294.88
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Invested
$909.03
Value
$705.75
PnL
-$203.29
Record
59%
44606-31003 (75609)
Both legs:
Invested
$632.34
Value
$669.96
PnL
+$37.62
Record
49%
18595-19019 (37614)
RN1CTRInvested
$180.56
Value
$238.31
PnL
+$57.74
Record
54%
55711-47797 (103508)
Invested
$178.83
Value
$219.05
PnL
+$40.22
Record
50%
12108-12317 (24425)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$26.87
Value
$26.98
PnL
+$0.11
Record
53%
3047-2709 (5756)
Invested
$18.99
Value
$18.5
PnL
-$0.48
Record
55%
1688-1389 (3077)
Invested
$3.07
Value
$7.14
PnL
+$4.07
Record
50%
32772-32329 (65101)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.