Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will OFI win on 2026-10-28?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 43¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28

Yes57¢No43¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$131.9

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 42.5¢

-17% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes57%

No43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,133

Combined PnL+$17

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,293

Combined PnL+$114.9

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
us391CTR	Noavg 51¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$15.38	51% 1646-1580 (3226)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 48.1¢	$564.46	$675.33	+$110.87	59% 44610-31007 (75617)
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 44¢	$462.13	$457.12	-$5.01	49% 18605-19035 (37640)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 48.6¢	$35.1	$43.43	+$8.33	53% 3056-2718 (5774)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Noavg 45.8¢	$22.27	$23.81	+$1.54	54% 6046-5125 (11171)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Noavg 56¢	$3.92	$3.95	+$0.03	63% 1075-624 (1699)
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$2.47	$3.18	+$0.71	60% 9374-6357 (15731)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$0.92	$0.97	+$0.05	52% 5875-5510 (11385)

us391CTR

Invested

$1,568.26

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$15.38

Record

51%

1646-1580 (3226)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$564.46

Value

$675.33

PnL

+$110.87

Record

59%

44610-31007 (75617)

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$462.13

Value

$457.12

PnL

-$5.01

Record

49%

18605-19035 (37640)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.1

Value

$43.43

PnL

+$8.33

Record

53%

3056-2718 (5774)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Invested

$22.27

Value

$23.81

PnL

+$1.54

Record

54%

6046-5125 (11171)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Invested

$3.92

Value

$3.95

PnL

+$0.03

Record

63%

1075-624 (1699)

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.47

Value

$3.18

PnL

+$0.71

Record

60%

9374-6357 (15731)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$0.92

Value

$0.97

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

5875-5510 (11385)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 43%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.