Will AE Lárisas 1964 win on 2026-10-28?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 52¢ · $98 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$98.01
$29.44
Research grade
NeutralYes at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $95.91 | $56.2 | +$7.64 | 52% 5884-5521 (11405) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 21.5¢ | $11.52 | $26.83 | +$15.31 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $15.98 | $9.99 | +$3.6 | 73% 1485-544 (2029) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $2.1 | $5 | +$2.9 | 54% 6053-5127 (11180) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.