Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$3.6K
$487.63
85.2¢ → 98.7¢
+16% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Contentious-Dinnerdate | Noavg 85¢ | $2.4K | $2.8K | +$382.86 | 50% 391-397 (788) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 81.2¢ | $464.19 | $569.24 | +$99.91 | 53% 1128-1012 (2140) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.7¢ | $132.68 | $132.6 | -$0.08 | 61% 20945-13330 (34275) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $55.43 | $58.1 | +$2.05 | 42% 5209-7140 (12349) |
ME melonmanm<$100 | Noavg 89.9¢ | $29.67 | $32.55 | +$2.89 | 65% 488-263 (751) |
Contentious-DinnerdateInvested
$2,387.19
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$382.86
Record
50%
391-397 (788)
Invested
$464.19
Value
$569.24
PnL
+$99.91
Record
53%
1128-1012 (2140)
balthazarInvested
$132.68
Value
$132.6
PnL
-$0.08
Record
61%
20945-13330 (34275)
Invested
$55.43
Value
$58.1
PnL
+$2.05
Record
42%
5209-7140 (12349)
Invested
$29.67
Value
$32.55
PnL
+$2.89
Record
65%
488-263 (751)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.