Gemini Carbon released by November 13, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 65¢ · $860 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$860.5
$44.46
60.3¢ → 64.5¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO borntoolate.eth | Yesavg 63.6¢ | $428.91 | $428.91 | +$0 | 75% 315-103 (418) |
 Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yesavg 53¢ | $132.5 | $159.06 | +$26.25 | 50% 406-408 (814) |
 Parz1vaICTR | Noavg 32.8¢ | $128.1 | $138.86 | +$10.76 | 72% 3493-1332 (4825) |
BR BrownBees<$100 | Yesavg 57¢ | $68.34 | $76.28 | +$7.94 | 61% 67-42 (109) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Yesavg 59.6¢ | $57.86 | $57.38 | -$0.48 | 42% 5246-7177 (12423) |
Invested
$428.91
Value
$428.91
PnL
+$0
Record
75%
315-103 (418)
Contentious-DinnerdateInvested
$132.5
Value
$159.06
PnL
+$26.25
Record
50%
406-408 (814)
Parz1vaICTRInvested
$128.1
Value
$138.86
PnL
+$10.76
Record
72%
3493-1332 (4825)
Invested
$68.34
Value
$76.28
PnL
+$7.94
Record
61%
67-42 (109)
Invested
$57.86
Value
$57.38
PnL
-$0.48
Record
42%
5246-7177 (12423)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.