Gavin Newsom Democratic nomination odds leader on November 30?
7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 99¢ · $680 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 64%
$679.92
-$31.45
95¢ → 98.9¢
+4% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-25 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PI PiEDawg | Noavg 95¢ | $185.63 | $192.7 | +$7.37 | 49% 1785-1863 (3648) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 96¢ | $325.26 | $162.63 | -$1.63 | 14% 503-3047 (3550) |
HA haveagoodday | Noavg 93.9¢ | $145.47 | $153.14 | +$7.67 | 51% 3741-3595 (7336) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 95.7¢ | $76.54 | $79.04 | +$2.5 | 46% 10370-12093 (22463) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 94.2¢ | $51.72 | $54.23 | +$2.51 | 42% 3835-5193 (9028) |
LP lpgb<$100 | Noavg 92.3¢ | $13.82 | $14.79 | +$0.97 | 27% 532-1439 (1971) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $11.06 | $11.25 | +$0.19 | 50% 9890-9904 (19794) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $17.08 | $6.83 | -$10.25 | 41% 6357-9331 (15688) |
SP SpringlyFawlCTR | Yesavg 10¢ | $260 | $2.99 | -$23.01 | 30% 2485-5916 (8401) |
 LucerysCTR | Yesavg 10¢ | $150 | $1.73 | -$13.28 | 76% 13009-4160 (17169) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $51.27 | $0.59 | -$4.51 | 58% 12017-8564 (20581) |
Invested
$185.63
Value
$192.7
PnL
+$7.37
Record
49%
1785-1863 (3648)
IstarothInvested
$325.26
Value
$162.63
PnL
-$1.63
Record
14%
503-3047 (3550)
Invested
$145.47
Value
$153.14
PnL
+$7.67
Record
51%
3741-3595 (7336)
Invested
$76.54
Value
$79.04
PnL
+$2.5
Record
46%
10370-12093 (22463)
Invested
$51.72
Value
$54.23
PnL
+$2.51
Record
42%
3835-5193 (9028)
Invested
$13.82
Value
$14.79
PnL
+$0.97
Record
27%
532-1439 (1971)
Invested
$11.06
Value
$11.25
PnL
+$0.19
Record
50%
9890-9904 (19794)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$17.08
Value
$6.83
PnL
-$10.25
Record
41%
6357-9331 (15688)
Invested
$260
Value
$2.99
PnL
-$23.01
Record
30%
2485-5916 (8401)
LucerysCTRInvested
$150
Value
$1.73
PnL
-$13.28
Record
76%
13009-4160 (17169)
Invested
$51.27
Value
$0.59
PnL
-$4.51
Record
58%
12017-8564 (20581)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.