Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before June 30, 2027?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 80¢ · $649 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 100%
$649.2
$147.3
57¢ → 79.5¢
+40% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 mombil | Noavg 56¢ | $423.76 | $601.5 | +$143.7 | 55% 1191-966 (2157) |
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $41.4 | $47.7 | +$3.6 | 85% 605-108 (713) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.