Rodez Aveyron Football vs. USL Dunkerque: O/U 1.5

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 63¢ · $119 held · ended Oct 30

Over63¢Under37¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 83%

Total Value

$119.35

Combined PnL

$8.1

Research grade

NeutralOver at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over63%

Under38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$51.75

Total Shares138

Combined PnL+$24.21

Over5 traders

Total Value$67.59

Total Shares68

Combined PnL-$16.11

Under — 17%Over — 83%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$27.54	$51.75	+$24.21	59% 45382-31736 (77118)
FO foooool<$100	Overavg 78.1¢	$60.12	$48.5	-$12	50% 10770-10596 (21366)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 79.5¢	$10.92	$10.43	-$0.49	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 85¢	$5.93	$3.56	-$2.37	49% 19009-19414 (38423)
RN1<$100	Overavg 65¢	$3.25	$2.55	-$0.7	54% 56331-48482 (104813)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 62¢	$3.1	$2.55	-$0.55	49% 12488-12848 (25336)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.54

Value

$51.75

PnL

+$24.21

Record

59%

45382-31736 (77118)

foooool<$100

Over

Invested

$60.12

Value

$48.5

PnL

-$12

Record

50%

10770-10596 (21366)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Over

Invested

$10.92

Value

$10.43

PnL

-$0.49

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$5.93

Value

$3.56

PnL

-$2.37

Record

49%

19009-19414 (38423)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$3.25

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$0.7

Record

54%

56331-48482 (104813)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$3.1

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$0.55

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.