Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (82%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
FC Nantes vs. Clermont Foot 63: O/U 2.5
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 19¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Over
9
Over 56%
$3.1K
$79.45
51.8¢ → 18.5¢
-64% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 19%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Under 82%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391CTR | Overavg 52¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | -$102.94 | 51% 1672-1622 (3294) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 48¢ | $316.88 | $498.11 | +$181.23 | 59% 45382-31736 (77118) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 51.1¢ | $405.2 | $404.55 | -$0.65 | 50% 24858-24564 (49422) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $99.4 | $97.45 | -$2.92 | 53% 15882-14070 (29952) |
GA GamblingOdysseyCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $39.54 | $41.15 | +$1.61 | 51% 851-816 (1667) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 54.6¢ | $22.71 | $23.23 | +$0.52 | 50% 10770-10596 (21366) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $13.81 | $13.81 | +$0 | 58% 28421-20980 (49401) |
LI Lilybaeum<$100 | Underavg 35¢ | $5.13 | $7.19 | +$2.05 | 62% 13685-8540 (22225) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 39¢ | $2.11 | $2.65 | +$0.54 | 54% 56331-48482 (104813) |
us391CTRInvested
$2,141.15
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$102.94
Record
51%
1672-1622 (3294)
Invested
$316.88
Value
$498.11
PnL
+$181.23
Record
59%
45382-31736 (77118)
Invested
$405.2
Value
$404.55
PnL
-$0.65
Record
50%
24858-24564 (49422)
Invested
$99.4
Value
$97.45
PnL
-$2.92
Record
53%
15882-14070 (29952)
Invested
$39.54
Value
$41.15
PnL
+$1.61
Record
51%
851-816 (1667)
Invested
$22.71
Value
$23.23
PnL
+$0.52
Record
50%
10770-10596 (21366)
Invested
$13.81
Value
$13.81
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
28421-20980 (49401)
Invested
$5.13
Value
$7.19
PnL
+$2.05
Record
62%
13685-8540 (22225)
RN1<$100Invested
$2.11
Value
$2.65
PnL
+$0.54
Record
54%
56331-48482 (104813)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.