FC Nantes vs. Clermont Foot 63: O/U 1.5
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 56¢ · $242 held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 38%
$241.72
-$34.41
75.2¢ → 55.5¢
-26% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 75.6¢ | $135.75 | $89.84 | -$45.92 | 58% 41515-30150 (71665) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Overavg 74.6¢ | $62.89 | $51.45 | -$11.45 | 50% 24858-24564 (49422) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 25.2¢ | $20.26 | $40.16 | +$19.9 | 59% 45382-31736 (77118) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 21¢ | $36.11 | $38.01 | +$1.9 | 50% 10770-10596 (21366) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 28.9¢ | $7.34 | $9.91 | +$2.56 | 52% 4016-3659 (7675) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Overavg 73.8¢ | $10.15 | $6.88 | -$3.28 | 38% 3213-5245 (8458) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 25¢ | $1.83 | $3.67 | +$1.83 | 50% 33199-32726 (65925) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 36¢ | $1.8 | $1.83 | +$0.02 | 54% 56331-48482 (104813) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$135.75
Value
$89.84
PnL
-$45.92
Record
58%
41515-30150 (71665)
Invested
$62.89
Value
$51.45
PnL
-$11.45
Record
50%
24858-24564 (49422)
Invested
$20.26
Value
$40.16
PnL
+$19.9
Record
59%
45382-31736 (77118)
Invested
$36.11
Value
$38.01
PnL
+$1.9
Record
50%
10770-10596 (21366)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$7.34
Value
$9.91
PnL
+$2.56
Record
52%
4016-3659 (7675)
Invested
$10.15
Value
$6.88
PnL
-$3.28
Record
38%
3213-5245 (8458)
Invested
$1.83
Value
$3.67
PnL
+$1.83
Record
50%
33199-32726 (65925)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$1.8
Value
$1.83
PnL
+$0.02
Record
54%
56331-48482 (104813)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.