Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (86%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-10-30?
7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 14¢ · $260 held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
No
11
No 64%
$260
-$17.36
30.8¢ → 14.5¢
-53% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 86%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 34¢ | $89.53 | $120.32 | +$32.44 | 58% 41515-30150 (71665) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Noavg 26.5¢ | $69.17 | $48.36 | -$20.81 | 50% 10770-10596 (21366) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $72.67 | $43.59 | -$29.08 | 50% 24858-24564 (49422) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Yesavg 63¢ | $18.9 | $16.05 | -$2.85 | 49% 12488-12848 (25336) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $11.02 | $15.52 | +$4.51 | 53% 15882-14070 (29952) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 82¢ | $7.38 | $7.6 | +$0.22 | 52% 4016-3659 (7675) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Yesavg 83¢ | $4.37 | $2.82 | -$1.55 | 49% 19009-19414 (38423) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 84¢ | $4.2 | $2.68 | -$1.53 | 54% 6195-5245 (11440) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Noavg 16¢ | $0.38 | $1.11 | +$0.73 | 54% 56331-48482 (104813) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 15¢ | $0.35 | $1.09 | +$0.74 | 38% 3213-5245 (8458) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Noavg 14¢ | $1.05 | $0.86 | -$0.19 | 59% 45382-31736 (77118) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$89.53
Value
$120.32
PnL
+$32.44
Record
58%
41515-30150 (71665)
Invested
$69.17
Value
$48.36
PnL
-$20.81
Record
50%
10770-10596 (21366)
Invested
$72.67
Value
$43.59
PnL
-$29.08
Record
50%
24858-24564 (49422)
Invested
$18.9
Value
$16.05
PnL
-$2.85
Record
49%
12488-12848 (25336)
Invested
$11.02
Value
$15.52
PnL
+$4.51
Record
53%
15882-14070 (29952)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$7.38
Value
$7.6
PnL
+$0.22
Record
52%
4016-3659 (7675)
Invested
$4.37
Value
$2.82
PnL
-$1.55
Record
49%
19009-19414 (38423)
Invested
$4.2
Value
$2.68
PnL
-$1.53
Record
54%
6195-5245 (11440)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.38
Value
$1.11
PnL
+$0.73
Record
54%
56331-48482 (104813)
Invested
$0.35
Value
$1.09
PnL
+$0.74
Record
38%
3213-5245 (8458)
Invested
$1.05
Value
$0.86
PnL
-$0.19
Record
59%
45382-31736 (77118)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
14.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.