Will Clermont Foot 63 win on 2026-10-30?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$301.76

Smart Money Entry

89.6¢ → 98.7¢

+10% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,707

Combined PnL+$139.7

Yes5 traders

Total Value$352.53

Total Shares1,500

Combined PnL+$162.06

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 88¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$139.46	59% 45382-31736 (77118)
RN1	Noavg 95.7¢	$337.95	$340.59	+$2.64	54% 56331-48482 (104813)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 13¢	$153.12	$277.03	+$123.91	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$24.99	$48.94	+$23.95	50% 10770-10596 (21366)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$11	$23.5	+$12.5	38% 3213-5245 (8458)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 95¢	$12.35	$9.95	-$2.4	49% 12488-12848 (25336)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$1.2	$2.35	+$1.15	54% 6195-5245 (11440)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$2.76	$0.71	+$0.55	58% 41515-30150 (71665)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,179.41

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$139.46

Record

59%

45382-31736 (77118)

RN1

Invested

$337.95

Value

$340.59

PnL

+$2.64

Record

54%

56331-48482 (104813)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$153.12

Value

$277.03

PnL

+$123.91

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.99

Value

$48.94

PnL

+$23.95

Record

50%

10770-10596 (21366)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11

Value

$23.5

PnL

+$12.5

Record

38%

3213-5245 (8458)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$12.35

Value

$9.95

PnL

-$2.4

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$1.15

Record

54%

6195-5245 (11440)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.76

Value

$0.71

PnL

+$0.55

Record

58%

41515-30150 (71665)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.