Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (78%). 1 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
FC Nantes vs. Clermont Foot 63: Both Teams to Score
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 23¢ · $687 held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 17%
$686.78
$30.99
Research grade
AvoidYes at 23%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA GamblingOdysseyCTR | Yesavg 46¢ | $390.54 | $360.82 | -$29.71 | 51% 851-816 (1667) |
FO foooool | Noavg 54.8¢ | $128.53 | $165.29 | +$36.76 | 50% 10770-10596 (21366) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $55.84 | $60.58 | +$4.74 | 58% 41515-30150 (71665) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $48 | $57.5 | +$10 | 38% 3213-5245 (8458) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 51.6¢ | $19.62 | $27.93 | +$8.31 | 59% 45382-31736 (77118) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $13.77 | $14.66 | +$0.89 | 52% 4016-3659 (7675) |
Invested
$390.54
Value
$360.82
PnL
-$29.71
Record
51%
851-816 (1667)
Invested
$128.53
Value
$165.29
PnL
+$36.76
Record
50%
10770-10596 (21366)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$55.84
Value
$60.58
PnL
+$4.74
Record
58%
41515-30150 (71665)
Invested
$48
Value
$57.5
PnL
+$10
Record
38%
3213-5245 (8458)
Invested
$19.62
Value
$27.93
PnL
+$8.31
Record
59%
45382-31736 (77118)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$13.77
Value
$14.66
PnL
+$0.89
Record
52%
4016-3659 (7675)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.