FC Metz vs. Pau FC: O/U 2.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 56¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 30

Over45¢Under55¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.4K

Combined PnL

-$276.39

Smart Money Entry

49.1¢ → 55.5¢

+13% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares13,145

Combined PnL+$106.65

Over2 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares7,204

Combined PnL-$383.04

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388	Underavg 48.9¢	$4.7K	$4.8K	+$62.53	55% 1727-1417 (3144)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 51¢	$3.5K	$3.1K	-$379.72	49% 12488-12848 (25336)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 49.6¢	$675.91	$736.32	+$60.41	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
RA rabbitfoot1	Underavg 52¢	$522.11	$507.05	-$15.06	53% 1128-987 (2115)
us391	Underavg 48¢	$453.92	$453.92	+$0	51% 1672-1622 (3294)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Underavg 48¢	$297.72	$319.65	-$2.87	53% 15882-14070 (29952)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$198.34	$225.2	+$2.07
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.9¢	$99.38	$94.45	-$4.93
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Overavg 48.3¢	$249.74	$247.57	-$2.17	58% 28421-20980 (49401)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.3¢	$186.38	$175.63	-$10.75
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$63.36	$71.94	+$8.58
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 47¢	$249.05	$136.5	-$3.32	58% 41507-30134 (71641)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Underavg 51¢	$59.67	$59.09	-$0.59	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
RN1<$100	Underavg 54¢	$2.93	$2.28	-$0.65	54% 56326-48479 (104805)

VD721lsj4938Dk388

Under

Invested

$4,743.45

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$62.53

Record

55%

1727-1417 (3144)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$3,521.04

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$379.72

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$675.91

Value

$736.32

PnL

+$60.41

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

rabbitfoot1

Under

Invested

$522.11

Value

$507.05

PnL

-$15.06

Record

53%

1128-987 (2115)

us391

Under

Invested

$453.92

Value

$453.92

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1672-1622 (3294)

CannaeARB<$100

Under

Invested

$297.72

Value

$319.65

PnL

-$2.87

Record

53%

15882-14070 (29952)

Both legs:

Under$198.3448¢+$2.07

Over$99.3847.9¢-$4.93

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$249.74

Value

$247.57

PnL

-$2.17

Record

58%

28421-20980 (49401)

Both legs:

Over$186.3848.3¢-$10.75

Under$63.3648¢+$8.58

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$249.05

Value

$136.5

PnL

-$3.32

Record

58%

41507-30134 (71641)

UpTheBlues<$100

Under

Invested

$59.67

Value

$59.09

PnL

-$0.59

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$2.93

Value

$2.28

PnL

-$0.65

Record

54%

56326-48479 (104805)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.