Will FC Metz win on 2026-10-30?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 52¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$4.3K
$26.8
51.4¢ → 51.5¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 51¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$17.81 | 54% 56317-48472 (104789) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 52¢ | $812.1 | $835.53 | +$23.43 | 49% 12487-12848 (25335) |
SA Saber-greedCTR | Yesavg 49¢ | $843.19 | $834.59 | -$8.6 | 59% 2553-1775 (4328) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 52¢ | $347.75 | $344.41 | -$3.34 | 59% 45379-31733 (77112) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 48¢ | $294.88 | $291.81 | -$3.07 | 50% 24854-24560 (49414) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 51.1¢ | $93.42 | $94.19 | +$0.77 | 53% 15879-14069 (29948) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $41.31 | $41.72 | +$0.41 | 58% 28414-20974 (49388) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 52.3¢ | $31.15 | $20.36 | -$0.59 | 58% 41493-30115 (71608) |
RN1Invested
$1,816.16
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$17.81
Record
54%
56317-48472 (104789)
Invested
$812.1
Value
$835.53
PnL
+$23.43
Record
49%
12487-12848 (25335)
Invested
$843.19
Value
$834.59
PnL
-$8.6
Record
59%
2553-1775 (4328)
Invested
$347.75
Value
$344.41
PnL
-$3.34
Record
59%
45379-31733 (77112)
Invested
$294.88
Value
$291.81
PnL
-$3.07
Record
50%
24854-24560 (49414)
Invested
$93.42
Value
$94.19
PnL
+$0.77
Record
53%
15879-14069 (29948)
Invested
$41.31
Value
$41.72
PnL
+$0.41
Record
58%
28414-20974 (49388)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$31.15
Value
$20.36
PnL
-$0.59
Record
58%
41493-30115 (71608)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.