Will US Boulogne Côte d'Opale win on 2026-10-30?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $197 held · ended Oct 30

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$197.05

Combined PnL

$17.05

Smart Money Entry

85.5¢ → 99¢

+16% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$191.39

Total Shares202

Combined PnL+$16.09

Yes3 traders

Total Value$5.66

Total Shares17

Combined PnL+$0.96

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 89¢	$145.25	$160.92	+$15.67	59% 45382-31736 (77118)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 70¢	$9.91	$9.79	-$0.13	50% 10770-10596 (21366)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 68¢	$8.5	$8.38	-$0.13	53% 15882-14070 (29952)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 82.5¢	$4.63	$5.5	+$0.87	52% 4016-3659 (7675)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 69¢	$3.56	$3.46	-$0.1	49% 12488-12848 (25336)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Noavg 69¢	$3.45	$3.35	-$0.1	62% 13685-8540 (22225)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$2.15	$2.36	+$0.21	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$1.55	$1.65	+$0.1	54% 6195-5245 (11440)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$1	$1.65	+$0.65	58% 18586-13652 (32238)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$145.25

Value

$160.92

PnL

+$15.67

Record

59%

45382-31736 (77118)

foooool<$100

Invested

$9.91

Value

$9.79

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

10770-10596 (21366)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$8.5

Value

$8.38

PnL

-$0.13

Record

53%

15882-14070 (29952)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$4.63

Value

$5.5

PnL

+$0.87

Record

52%

4016-3659 (7675)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$3.56

Value

$3.46

PnL

-$0.1

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

Lilybaeum<$100

Invested

$3.45

Value

$3.35

PnL

-$0.1

Record

62%

13685-8540 (22225)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.36

PnL

+$0.21

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.55

Value

$1.65

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

6195-5245 (11440)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.65

PnL

+$0.65

Record

58%

18586-13652 (32238)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.