Stade Lavallois Mayenne FC vs. US Boulogne Côte d'Opale: O/U 2.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 80¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 57%
$1.1K
-$4.97
57.9¢ → 80¢
+38% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 57.1¢ | $718.17 | $711.54 | -$6.62 | 50% 24858-24564 (49422) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 63.9¢ | $118.6 | $124.07 | +$5.47 | 59% 45382-31736 (77118) |
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100 | Overavg 41¢ | $60.18 | $74.42 | +$14.24 | 62% 13685-8540 (22225) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 58¢ | $122.72 | $66.74 | -$13.26 | 58% 41515-30150 (71665) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Underavg 58¢ | $61.83 | $52.24 | -$9.59 | 53% 15882-14070 (29952) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Overavg 41¢ | $13.62 | $16.94 | +$3.32 | 50% 33199-32726 (65925) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 41¢ | $10.26 | $11.73 | +$1.47 | 54% 56331-48482 (104813) |
Invested
$718.17
Value
$711.54
PnL
-$6.62
Record
50%
24858-24564 (49422)
Invested
$118.6
Value
$124.07
PnL
+$5.47
Record
59%
45382-31736 (77118)
Invested
$60.18
Value
$74.42
PnL
+$14.24
Record
62%
13685-8540 (22225)
VeryLucky888Invested
$122.72
Value
$66.74
PnL
-$13.26
Record
58%
41515-30150 (71665)
Invested
$61.83
Value
$52.24
PnL
-$9.59
Record
53%
15882-14070 (29952)
Invested
$13.62
Value
$16.94
PnL
+$3.32
Record
50%
33199-32726 (65925)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$10.26
Value
$11.73
PnL
+$1.47
Record
54%
56331-48482 (104813)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.