Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (57%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Stade Lavallois Mayenne FC vs. US Boulogne Côte d'Opale: O/U 1.5

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 43¢ · $139 held · ended Oct 30

Over57¢Under43¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 71%

Total Value

$138.97

Combined PnL

$7.54

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$73.61

Total Shares109

Combined PnL-$2.7

Under5 traders

Total Value$65.36

Total Shares152

Combined PnL+$10.24

Over — 29%Under — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 75.8¢	$49.18	$48.02	-$1.16	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 35.4¢	$36.97	$43.37	+$6.4	59% 45382-31736 (77118)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 62¢	$27.13	$25.59	-$1.54	49% 12488-12848 (25336)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 39.3¢	$6.19	$7.71	+$1.52	50% 10770-10596 (21366)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$4.71	$7.21	+$2.5	58% 41515-30150 (71665)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 41.2¢	$4.73	$4.13	-$0.6	54% 56331-48482 (104813)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$2.52	$2.94	+$0.42	38% 3213-5245 (8458)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Over

Invested

$49.18

Value

$48.02

PnL

-$1.16

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$36.97

Value

$43.37

PnL

+$6.4

Record

59%

45382-31736 (77118)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$27.13

Value

$25.59

PnL

-$1.54

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.19

Value

$7.71

PnL

+$1.52

Record

50%

10770-10596 (21366)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.71

Value

$7.21

PnL

+$2.5

Record

58%

41515-30150 (71665)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.73

Value

$4.13

PnL

-$0.6

Record

54%

56331-48482 (104813)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.52

Value

$2.94

PnL

+$0.42

Record

38%

3213-5245 (8458)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 43%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.