Will AS Saint-Étienne win on 2026-10-31?
10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 85¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
13
No 77%
$5.1K
$769.55
59.3¢ → 84.5¢
+42% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 66.5¢ | $1.7K | $2.2K | +$456.6 | 50% 25208-24935 (50143) |
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 62.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$47.71 | 57% 1746-1303 (3049) |
 RN1 | Noavg 48.8¢ | $865.97 | $913.54 | +$47.56 | 54% 56681-48879 (105560) |
LI Lilybaeum | Noavg 51.5¢ | $283.51 | $452.37 | +$168.86 | 61% 13722-8594 (22316) |
FO foooool | Noavg 76.5¢ | $124.18 | $137.91 | +$13.73 | 50% 10919-10736 (21655) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 46.6¢ | $76.29 | $84.38 | +$8.08 | 53% 15980-14158 (30138) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $19.03 | $20.98 | +$1.95 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $15.43 | $16.22 | +$0.79 | 59% 10257-7240 (17497) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $5.2 | $14.01 | +$8.81 | 49% 12681-13099 (25780) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $8.36 | $12.65 | +$4.29 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $69.83 | $10.3 | +$10.41 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $0.84 | $0.94 | +$0.1 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $0.27 | $0.93 | +$0.66 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
Invested
$1,696.8
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$456.6
Record
50%
25208-24935 (50143)
oieshfn345Invested
$1,195.45
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$47.71
Record
57%
1746-1303 (3049)
RN1Invested
$865.97
Value
$913.54
PnL
+$47.56
Record
54%
56681-48879 (105560)
Invested
$283.51
Value
$452.37
PnL
+$168.86
Record
61%
13722-8594 (22316)
Invested
$124.18
Value
$137.91
PnL
+$13.73
Record
50%
10919-10736 (21655)
Invested
$76.29
Value
$84.38
PnL
+$8.08
Record
53%
15980-14158 (30138)
Invested
$19.03
Value
$20.98
PnL
+$1.95
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
poshposh<$100Invested
$15.43
Value
$16.22
PnL
+$0.79
Record
59%
10257-7240 (17497)
Invested
$5.2
Value
$14.01
PnL
+$8.81
Record
49%
12681-13099 (25780)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$8.36
Value
$12.65
PnL
+$4.29
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$69.83
Value
$10.3
PnL
+$10.41
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
Invested
$0.84
Value
$0.94
PnL
+$0.1
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
Invested
$0.27
Value
$0.93
PnL
+$0.66
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.