Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold FC Annecy, while the market favors Montpellier HSC (99%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Montpellier HSC (-1.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold FC Annecy (67%) · FC Annecy at 0.8¢ · $148 held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
FC Annecy
6
FC Annecy 67%
$147.72
-$50.11
72¢ → 0.8¢
-99% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidFC Annecy at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Montpellier HSC 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | FC Annecyavg 80¢ | $80.75 | $50.97 | -$29.78 | 49% 12639-13031 (25670) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Montpellier HSCavg 48¢ | $48 | $49.5 | +$1.5 | 49% 7973-8309 (16282) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | FC Annecyavg 80¢ | $49.32 | $31.13 | -$18.19 | 53% 15955-14130 (30085) |
 poshposh<$100 | Montpellier HSCavg 47¢ | $8.57 | $9.02 | +$0.46 | 59% 10176-7169 (17345) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | FC Annecyavg 75.2¢ | $10.19 | $6.84 | -$3.35 | 50% 25098-24836 (49934) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | FC Annecyavg 5¢ | $1 | $0.25 | -$0.75 | 59% 45816-32172 (77988) |
Invested
$80.75
Value
$50.97
PnL
-$29.78
Record
49%
12639-13031 (25670)
Invested
$48
Value
$49.5
PnL
+$1.5
Record
49%
7973-8309 (16282)
Invested
$49.32
Value
$31.13
PnL
-$18.19
Record
53%
15955-14130 (30085)
poshposh<$100Invested
$8.57
Value
$9.02
PnL
+$0.46
Record
59%
10176-7169 (17345)
Invested
$10.19
Value
$6.84
PnL
-$3.35
Record
50%
25098-24836 (49934)
Invested
$1
Value
$0.25
PnL
-$0.75
Record
59%
45816-32172 (77988)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.