Will Montpellier HSC win on 2026-10-31?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (70%) · Yes at 100¢ · $328 held · ended Oct 31

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 70%

Total Value

$328.15

Combined PnL

-$37.92

Smart Money Entry

77.4¢ → 99.6¢

+29% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$306.86

Total Shares353

Combined PnL+$31.08

No3 traders

Total Value$21.3

Total Shares222

Combined PnL-$69

Yes — 70%No — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 73.4¢	$133.66	$179.43	+$45.77	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
AR ARocky33<$100	Yesavg 94.6¢	$74.52	$73.29	-$1.22	76% 4051-1277 (5328)
RN1<$100	Yesavg 67.5¢	$32.4	$26.4	-$6	54% 56601-48769 (105370)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 58¢	$21.35	$16.25	-$5.1	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
RO Rocky31<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$18.72	$13.2	-$5.52	74% 1592-569 (2161)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$4.3	$6.4	-$0.25	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Yesavg 99¢	$5.38	$5.39	+$0.01	62% 13707-8571 (22278)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$3.3	$4.5	+$1.2	58% 18658-13715 (32373)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 89¢	$4.45	$2.75	-$1.7	54% 6279-5320 (11599)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$65.65	$0.55	-$65.1	59% 45816-32172 (77988)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$133.66

Value

$179.43

PnL

+$45.77

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

ARocky33<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.52

Value

$73.29

PnL

-$1.22

Record

76%

4051-1277 (5328)

RN1<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.4

Value

$26.4

PnL

-$6

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$21.35

Value

$16.25

PnL

-$5.1

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

Rocky31<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.72

Value

$13.2

PnL

-$5.52

Record

74%

1592-569 (2161)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.3

Value

$6.4

PnL

-$0.25

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

Lilybaeum<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.38

Value

$5.39

PnL

+$0.01

Record

62%

13707-8571 (22278)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Invested

$3.3

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$1.2

Record

58%

18658-13715 (32373)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.45

Value

$2.75

PnL

-$1.7

Record

54%

6279-5320 (11599)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Invested

$65.65

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$65.1

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.