Will FC Annecy win on 2026-10-31?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $211 held · ended Oct 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$210.96

Combined PnL

-$3.4

Smart Money Entry

84.2¢ → 99.5¢

+18% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$130.9

Total Shares132

Combined PnL+$18.13

Yes4 traders

Total Value$80.06

Total Shares1,263

Combined PnL-$21.53

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 87.6¢	$92.26	$104.92	+$12.66	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$22.12	$56.79	+$34.67	54% 56601-48769 (105370)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$32.86	$22.26	-$10.6	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 68¢	$10.63	$14.74	+$4.12	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 79¢	$4.72	$6.17	+$1.45	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 70¢	$4.13	$5.07	-$0.09	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$62	$0.74	-$44.84	58% 41916-30432 (72348)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$1.05	$0.28	-$0.77	58% 18658-13715 (32373)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$92.26

Value

$104.92

PnL

+$12.66

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.12

Value

$56.79

PnL

+$34.67

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.86

Value

$22.26

PnL

-$10.6

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

foooool<$100

Invested

$10.63

Value

$14.74

PnL

+$4.12

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$4.72

Value

$6.17

PnL

+$1.45

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$4.13

Value

$5.07

PnL

-$0.09

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62

Value

$0.74

PnL

-$44.84

Record

58%

41916-30432 (72348)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$0.77

Record

58%

18658-13715 (32373)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.