Will Deportivo Saprissa win on 2026-10-31?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 52¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 1

Yes48¢No52¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$9.61

Smart Money Entry

53.1¢ → 52¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes48%

No52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,209

Combined PnL-$36.42

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,170

Combined PnL+$26.8

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 53.1¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$35.93	50% 19465-19831 (39296)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 54.2¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$6.67	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 46.5¢	$684.03	$705.97	+$21.95
└ No leg	Noavg 54.2¢	$709.78	$681.16	-$28.62
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Yesavg 47¢	$940	$960	+$20	47% 2575-2863 (5438)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 44.6¢	$598.39	$623.37	+$24.98	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 44.6¢	$414.05	$454.94	+$40.89
└ No leg	Noavg 55.8¢	$184.34	$168.43	-$15.91
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$74.83	$81.63	+$6.8	50% 2545-2532 (5077)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 52.1¢	$19.57	$18.96	-$0.62	53% 16124-14290 (30414)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 50¢	$7.08	$7.16	+$0.08	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.55	+$0.05	54% 6435-5416 (11851)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$1,677.86

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$35.93

Record

50%

19465-19831 (39296)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$1,393.81

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$6.67

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

Both legs:

Yes$684.0346.5¢+$21.95

No$709.7854.2¢-$28.62

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Yes

Invested

$940

Value

$960

PnL

+$20

Record

47%

2575-2863 (5438)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$598.39

Value

$623.37

PnL

+$24.98

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

Both legs:

Yes$414.0544.6¢+$40.89

No$184.3455.8¢-$15.91

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.83

Value

$81.63

PnL

+$6.8

Record

50%

2545-2532 (5077)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$19.57

Value

$18.96

PnL

-$0.62

Record

53%

16124-14290 (30414)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$7.08

Value

$7.16

PnL

+$0.08

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

6435-5416 (11851)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 52%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.