Will CS Cartaginés win on 2026-11-01?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 96¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1

Yes96¢No4¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$58.34

Smart Money Entry

59.9¢ → 96¢

+60% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes96%

No4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$837.1

Total Shares873

Combined PnL+$210.95

No2 traders

Total Value$84.28

Total Shares562

Combined PnL-$152.61

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 59¢	$586.83	$791.82	+$204.98	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 24.9¢	$252.17	$165.38	-$86.79	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
└ No leg	Noavg 24.9¢	$209.16	$126.07	-$83.09
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 93¢	$43.01	$39.31	-$3.7
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Noavg 42.6¢	$200.88	$70.8	-$130.08	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Yesavg 74.4¢	$36.62	$41.84	+$5.22	59% 30682-21402 (52084)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 40.1¢	$36.01	$13.48	-$22.53	53% 16124-14290 (30414)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$2.7	$3.45	+$0.75	53% 5677-5082 (10759)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$586.83

Value

$791.82

PnL

+$204.98

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$252.17

Value

$165.38

PnL

-$86.79

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

Both legs:

No$209.1624.9¢-$83.09

Yes$43.0193¢-$3.7

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Invested

$200.88

Value

$70.8

PnL

-$130.08

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.62

Value

$41.84

PnL

+$5.22

Record

59%

30682-21402 (52084)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$36.01

Value

$13.48

PnL

-$22.53

Record

53%

16124-14290 (30414)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.7

Value

$3.45

PnL

+$0.75

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.