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3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 90¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
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Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$1.4K
-$81.58
92.8¢ → 90¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Car | Noavg 93¢ | $930 | $900 | -$30 | 67% 4136-2001 (6137) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 93¢ | $450 | $388 | -$44.13 | 28% 280-738 (1018) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.1¢ | $76.63 | $65.88 | -$10.76 | 42% 5192-7113 (12305) |
 GenaTheBondKilIer<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $15 | $18 | +$3.3 | 50% 513-503 (1016) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.