Will ES Troyes AC win on 2026-10-31?

8 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 96¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31

Yes96¢No4¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$29.58

Smart Money Entry

69¢ → 95.5¢

+38% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 16 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes96%

No5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares3,169

Combined PnL+$169.76

No8 traders

Total Value$461.54

Total Shares1,378

Combined PnL-$140.18

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$72.73	54% 56681-48879 (105560)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 69¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$143.13
└ No leg	Noavg 26.7¢	$853.68	$783.29	-$70.39
oieshfn345	Yesavg 69.5¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$99.37	57% 1746-1303 (3049)
LU LuckyLoo	Yesavg 70¢	$502.88	$513.66	+$10.78	49% 12681-13099 (25780)
ComingBackCTR	Noavg 57.6¢	$336	$341.39	+$5.4	61% 3943-2470 (6413)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 62.4¢	$174.74	$216.92	+$42.18	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Yesavg 72.5¢	$113.57	$106.25	-$7.32	52% 13817-12605 (26422)
AN Anon455CTR	Noavg 55.7¢	$147.49	$75.99	-$71.51	55% 2937-2368 (5305)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$27.5	$52.25	+$24.75	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Yesavg 96¢	$27	$26.85	-$0.14	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Noavg 34.7¢	$93.8	$21.6	-$72.2	58% 18675-13734 (32409)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Yesavg 72¢	$14.4	$14.3	-$0.1	51% 1460-1410 (2870)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$10.75	$10.99	+$0.24	61% 13722-8594 (22316)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 2¢	$4.11	$9.24	+$5.13	59% 10257-7240 (17497)
CC ccllarCTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$3.92	$4.55	+$0.63	46% 433-500 (933)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$5	$3.98	-$1.02	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 55¢	$215.29	$2.97	+$4.02	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 54.9¢	$12.46	$1.82	-$10.64	53% 4792-4312 (9104)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,373.02

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$72.73

Record

54%

56681-48879 (105560)

Both legs:

Yes$1,519.3469¢+$143.13

No$853.6826.7¢-$70.39

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$1,447.96

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$99.37

Record

57%

1746-1303 (3049)

LuckyLoo

Yes

Invested

$502.88

Value

$513.66

PnL

+$10.78

Record

49%

12681-13099 (25780)

ComingBackCTR

Invested

$336

Value

$341.39

PnL

+$5.4

Record

61%

3943-2470 (6413)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$174.74

Value

$216.92

PnL

+$42.18

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Yes

Invested

$113.57

Value

$106.25

PnL

-$7.32

Record

52%

13817-12605 (26422)

Anon455CTR

Invested

$147.49

Value

$75.99

PnL

-$71.51

Record

55%

2937-2368 (5305)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.5

Value

$52.25

PnL

+$24.75

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

SnakeBall<$100

Yes

Invested

$27

Value

$26.85

PnL

-$0.14

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Invested

$93.8

Value

$21.6

PnL

-$72.2

Record

58%

18675-13734 (32409)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.4

Value

$14.3

PnL

-$0.1

Record

51%

1460-1410 (2870)

Lilybaeum<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.75

Value

$10.99

PnL

+$0.24

Record

61%

13722-8594 (22316)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$4.11

Value

$9.24

PnL

+$5.13

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

ccllarCTR<$100

Invested

$3.92

Value

$4.55

PnL

+$0.63

Record

46%

433-500 (933)

fooooolCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$3.98

PnL

-$1.02

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$215.29

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$4.02

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$12.46

Value

$1.82

PnL

-$10.64

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 16 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.