ES Troyes AC vs. Le Mans FC: O/U 4.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 97¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 31

Over3¢Under97¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

Total Value

$13.5K

Combined PnL

-$90.25

Smart Money Entry

92.2¢ → 97.1¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over3%

Under97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$13.5K

Total Shares14,473

Combined PnL-$36.12

Over5 traders

Total Value$61.19

Total Shares1,435

Combined PnL-$54.13

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8	Underavg 87.6¢	$5.6K	$5.5K	-$102.74	66% 203-106 (309)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 96.2¢	$4.2K	$4.3K	+$40.64	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
RN1	Underavg 95.3¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$26.82	54% 56681-48879 (105560)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 88¢	$36.96	$36.12	-$0.84	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 9.2¢	$93.39	$32.59	-$60.81	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 3.1¢	$6.2	$19.6	+$13.4	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 13¢	$11.57	$4.64	-$6.93	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 2.7¢	$3.54	$3.81	+$0.26	49% 12681-13099 (25780)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 3.1¢	$0.62	$0.56	-$0.06	55% 8315-6706 (15021)

0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8

Under

Invested

$5,584.34

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$102.74

Record

66%

203-106 (309)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$4,240.06

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$40.64

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

RN1

Under

Invested

$3,625.28

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$26.82

Record

54%

56681-48879 (105560)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$36.96

Value

$36.12

PnL

-$0.84

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$93.39

Value

$32.59

PnL

-$60.81

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.2

Value

$19.6

PnL

+$13.4

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.57

Value

$4.64

PnL

-$6.93

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.54

Value

$3.81

PnL

+$0.26

Record

49%

12681-13099 (25780)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.62

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$0.06

Record

55%

8315-6706 (15021)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.2%

97.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.