ES Troyes AC vs. Le Mans FC: O/U 2.5
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (17%) · Under at 52¢ · $13K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 17%
$12.7K
$49
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388 | Underavg 52¢ | $6.3K | $6.3K | +$0 | 55% 1741-1433 (3174) |
KY Kyn008CTR | Overavg 48¢ | $5.9K | $5.9K | +$61.44 | 49% 236-246 (482) |
 us391CTR | Overavg 49¢ | $238.11 | $233.25 | -$4.86 | 51% 1683-1643 (3326) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Overavg 50.9¢ | $134.25 | $126.67 | -$7.58 | 74% 6670-2388 (9058) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $47.41 | $47.41 | +$0 | 53% 15944-14125 (30069) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $26.88 | $26.88 | +$0 | 58% 28670-21162 (49832) |
Invested
$6,334.78
Value
$6.3K
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
1741-1433 (3174)
Invested
$5,898.3
Value
$5.9K
PnL
+$61.44
Record
49%
236-246 (482)
us391CTRInvested
$238.11
Value
$233.25
PnL
-$4.86
Record
51%
1683-1643 (3326)
Invested
$134.25
Value
$126.67
PnL
-$7.58
Record
74%
6670-2388 (9058)
Invested
$47.41
Value
$47.41
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
15944-14125 (30069)
Invested
$26.88
Value
$26.88
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
28670-21162 (49832)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.