Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

ES Troyes AC vs. Le Mans FC: O/U 1.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (45%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $845 held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 45%

Total Value

$845.39

Combined PnL

$68.31

Smart Money Entry

44.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$728.08

Total Shares1,497

Combined PnL+$63

Over6 traders

Total Value$117.31

Total Shares149

Combined PnL+$5.32

Under — 45%Over — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Underavg 49.4¢	$579.73	$616.49	+$36.76	50% 19212-19597 (38809)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 27.2¢	$67.62	$89.35	+$21.73	54% 56681-48879 (105560)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 74¢	$54.02	$57.31	+$3.28	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
0xheavy888<$100	Overavg 74¢	$25.22	$26.75	+$1.53	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 34.9¢	$15.32	$20.31	+$4.99	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 99¢	$14.32	$12.89	-$1.43	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 67¢	$7.25	$8.93	+$1.68	59% 10257-7240 (17497)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 58¢	$6.18	$6.37	+$0.2	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 47¢	$5.02	$5.07	+$0.05	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$1.67	$1.43	-$0.23	53% 15980-14158 (30138)
eskilloCTR<$100	Underavg 3¢	$0.75	$0.5	-$0.25	42% 598-827 (1425)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Under

Invested

$579.73

Value

$616.49

PnL

+$36.76

Record

50%

19212-19597 (38809)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$67.62

Value

$89.35

PnL

+$21.73

Record

54%

56681-48879 (105560)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$54.02

Value

$57.31

PnL

+$3.28

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

0xheavy888<$100

Over

Invested

$25.22

Value

$26.75

PnL

+$1.53

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.32

Value

$20.31

PnL

+$4.99

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$14.32

Value

$12.89

PnL

-$1.43

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$7.25

Value

$8.93

PnL

+$1.68

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Over

Invested

$6.18

Value

$6.37

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$5.02

Value

$5.07

PnL

+$0.05

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

CannaeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.67

Value

$1.43

PnL

-$0.23

Record

53%

15980-14158 (30138)

eskilloCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$0.25

Record

42%

598-827 (1425)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.