Will Le Mans FC win on 2026-10-31?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 72¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 31

Yes28¢No72¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

$0.67

Smart Money Entry

72¢ → 71.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares10,002

Combined PnL+$0.58

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares4,665

Combined PnL+$0.09

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XW xwingboy	Noavg 72¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$0	64% 296-166 (462)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 72¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$0	67% 2637-1283 (3920)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 28¢	$747	$747	+$0	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 28.1¢	$393.92	$399.07	+$5.15	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 29¢	$134.56	$129.92	-$4.64	50% 19212-19597 (38809)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 71¢	$41.17	$41.75	+$0.58	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$24.17	$24.17	+$0	53% 15980-14158 (30138)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$12.25	$11.83	-$0.42	73% 6697-2416 (9113)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$1.12	$1.12	+$0	53% 4792-4312 (9104)

xwingboy

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

296-166 (462)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$2,160

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$0

Record

67%

2637-1283 (3920)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$747

Value

$747

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$393.92

Value

$399.07

PnL

+$5.15

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$134.56

Value

$129.92

PnL

-$4.64

Record

50%

19212-19597 (38809)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$41.17

Value

$41.75

PnL

+$0.58

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.17

Value

$24.17

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

15980-14158 (30138)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.25

Value

$11.83

PnL

-$0.42

Record

73%

6697-2416 (9113)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.12

Value

$1.12

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.