Will ES Troyes AC vs. Le Mans FC end in a draw?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$28.45

Smart Money Entry

75.1¢ → 96.5¢

+29% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,672

Combined PnL+$7.35

Yes5 traders

Total Value$98.03

Total Shares538

Combined PnL-$35.8

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 72¢	$478.29	$468.32	-$9.96	73% 6697-2416 (9113)
oieshfn345	Noavg 76¢	$418.9	$434.54	+$6.05	57% 1746-1303 (3049)
AN Anon455	Noavg 76.9¢	$259.35	$269.77	+$10.42	55% 2937-2368 (5305)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 25.8¢	$321.53	$259.15	-$62.38	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.8¢	$264.55	$199.58	-$64.97
└ No leg	Noavg 77¢	$56.98	$59.57	+$2.59
FO foooool	Noavg 80¢	$100	$100.63	+$0.63	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 78.9¢	$51.12	$51.19	+$0.07	52% 13817-12605 (26422)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$42.78	$45.07	+$2.29	53% 15980-14158 (30138)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$28.34	$31.71	+$3.37	50% 19212-19597 (38809)
RN1<$100	Noavg 80¢	$20	$20.13	+$0.13	54% 56681-48879 (105560)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 25.2¢	$59.17	$17.63	-$41.55	58% 18675-13734 (32409)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 80¢	$4	$4.03	+$0.03	54% 6304-5335 (11639)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$2.1	$2.15	+$0.05	61% 13722-8594 (22316)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$1.45	$1.47	+$0.02	53% 4792-4312 (9104)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$478.29

Value

$468.32

PnL

-$9.96

Record

73%

6697-2416 (9113)

oieshfn345

Invested

$418.9

Value

$434.54

PnL

+$6.05

Record

57%

1746-1303 (3049)

Anon455

Invested

$259.35

Value

$269.77

PnL

+$10.42

Record

55%

2937-2368 (5305)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$321.53

Value

$259.15

PnL

-$62.38

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

Both legs:

Yes$264.5525.8¢-$64.97

No$56.9877¢+$2.59

foooool

Invested

$100

Value

$100.63

PnL

+$0.63

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$51.12

Value

$51.19

PnL

+$0.07

Record

52%

13817-12605 (26422)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.78

Value

$45.07

PnL

+$2.29

Record

53%

15980-14158 (30138)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.34

Value

$31.71

PnL

+$3.37

Record

50%

19212-19597 (38809)

RN1<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$20.13

PnL

+$0.13

Record

54%

56681-48879 (105560)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.17

Value

$17.63

PnL

-$41.55

Record

58%

18675-13734 (32409)

Betziko<$100

Invested

Value

$4.03

PnL

+$0.03

Record

54%

6304-5335 (11639)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.15

PnL

+$0.05

Record

61%

13722-8594 (22316)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.47

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.